The trade speculation has already started and its only 20 or so games into the season, this is an exciting and fun time for us arm chair general managers. Our imaginations get to run wild with what ifs and what about that, it is honestly one of my favorite things to think about, trades, line combinations, player call ups and just the overall future moving forward.
Everyone has their own idea of how a team should be built, ratings on different players and so forth which is what adds to fun conversations. The issue I seem to run into is teams fans OVER valuing their own players and UNDER valuing other teams players. That is understandable given you have more exposure to your own team and its assets. Everyone wants to give up nothing to get the best deal possible which is the right idea, but not realistic. You have to GIVE talent to GET talent.
Valuing a player in today’s NHL is not as easy as this guy gets X number of points compared to this guy. Advanced stats play a huge role in today’s game so teams and GM’s look at possession time, face offs, corsi and much more to see a players value with and without the puck. Another criteria is salary and how its going to effect your teams cap hit for X number of years and who you’re going to have to resign or let go during that time.
One of the biggest criteria for this season specifically is will you have to protect this player due to the expansion draft. That to me can change that players value dramatically. Take Connor Carrick for instance, in 19 GP this season he has 3 points as a smaller offensive defenseman. He WILL need to be protected in the expansion draft, to me he will at most be a 5/6 defenseman which is hardly worth protecting. A lot of Leaf fans love this guy and don’t want to give him up, if you weigh the pros and cons of this type of player the cons outweigh the pros in my opinion.
Here is a proposed deal that was swirling around Leafs twitter land this past weekend which got harsh criticism for being heavily lopsided,
JVR, Carrick, Leivo
While I agree it is a tad lopsided, I look at it as Carrick and Leivo are bottom line players and will most likely never get past that. Carrick needs to be protected and Leivo is waiver eligible and unless something happens probably wont make the Leafs. JVR is good no doubt but will command 6+ million when his contract expires which I am not sure if he is worth that, especially when you have young players looking to fill those roles and he needs to be protected. Hamilton is young, HUGE, 2 way defender signed long term to a decent cap hit and will flourish growing with this young team and especially under Babcock. He is exactly what the Leafs need. In my eyes you clear 2 spots you need to protect and only take on 1, you get the best player back in the deal and lose bottom line players and then JVR. Maybe add a 3rd or a 2nd with Hamilton to make it even.
To be clear I am not saying for Calgary or Toronto to make this deal, I am just using it as an example stating how I value players as its not just about talent for talent in today’s NHL. You can’t judge a book (a trade) by its cover, there is so much more criteria to judge by and think about when thinking about a players value. I may be wrong about how I do things but this is my opinion, I hope if people read this they start to think more about the in depth criteria when valuing a player. I am tired of fans from every NHL fan base OVER valuing their players and UNDER valuing other teams.
In the end this is all for fun, I am not looking to hate on people or think my way is the best. So lets hear some trade speculation and ideas!! Comment below or on Facebook, Or tweet me @TMLHockeytlk